AN ESSAY Concerning the Multiplication of Mankind: Together with another ESSAY IN Political Arithmetick, Concerning the Growth of the City of LONDON: WITH THE Measures, Periods, Causes, and Conse­quences thereof. 1682.

The Third Edition Revised and Enlarged.

By Sir WILLIAM PETTY, late Fellow of the Royal-Society.

LONDON, Printed for Robert Clavel at the Peacock, and Henry Mortlock at the Phoenix in St. Paul's Church Yard, 1698.

THE STATIONER TO THE READER.

THE ensuing Essay concerning the Growth of the City of London, was Entitled [Ano­ther Essay] intimating that some o­ther Essay had preceded it, which was not to be found. I having been much importuned for that precedent Essay, have found that the same was about the Growth, Increase, and Multipli­cation of Mankind, which Subject should in Order of Nature, precede that of [Page]the Growth of the City of London, but am not able to procure the Essay it self, only I have obtained from a Gentleman, who sometimes corresponded with Sir William Petty, an Extract of a Letter from Sir William to him, which I verily believe containeth the scope thereof; wherefore, I must desire the Reader to be content therewith, till more can be had.

The Extract of a Letter con­cerning the scope of an ESSAY intended to precede another ESSAY concerning the Growth of the City of LONDON, &c.
An ESSAY in Political Arith­metick, concerning the Value and Increase of People and Colonies.

THE Scope of this Essay, is con­cerning People and Colonies, and to make way for another Essay concerning the Growth of the City of London. I desire in this first Essay, to give the World some light, concerning the Numbers of People in England, with Wales, and in Ireland; [Page 6]as also, of the Number of Houses and Families, wherein they live, and of A­cres they occupy.

  • 2. How many live upon their Lands, how many upon their Personal Estates and Commerce, and how many upon Art and Labour; how many upon Alms, how many upon Offices and Publick Em­ployments, and how many as Cheats and Thieves; how many are Impotent, Chil­dren, and decrepit old Men.
  • 3. How many upon the Poll-Taxes in England, do pay extraordinary Rates, and how many at the Level.
  • 4. How many Men and Women are Prolifick, and how many of each are Married and Unmarried.
  • 5. What the Value of People are in England, and what in Ireland at a Me­dium, both as Members of the Church or Commonwealth, or as Slaves and Ser­vants to one another; with a Method how to estimate the same, in any other Country or Colony.
  • 6. How to compute the Value of Land in Colonies, in comparison to En­gland and Ireland.
  • [Page 7]7. How Ten Thousand People in a Colony may be, and planted to the best advantage.
  • 8. A Conjecture in what Number of Years England and Ireland may be fully peopled, as also all America; and lastly the whole habitable Earth.
  • 9. What spot of the Earth's-Globe were fittest for a general and universal Em­porium, whereby all the People thereof may best enjoy one anothers Labours and Commodities.
  • 10. Whether the speedy peopling of the Earth would make,
    • 1. For the good of Mankind.
    • 2. To fulfil the revealed Will of God.
    • 3. To what Prince or State the same would be most advantage­ous.
  • 11. An Exhortation to all thinking Men, to salve the Scriptures and other good Histories, concerning the Num­ber of People in all Ages of the World, in the great Cities thereof, and else­where.
  • 12. An Appendix concerning the dif­ferent Number of Sea-Fish and Wild-Fowl, [Page 8]at the end of every Thousand Years, since Noah's Flood.
  • 13. An Hypothesis of the use of those Spaces (of about 8000 Miles through) within the Globe of our Earth, supposing a Shell of 150 Miles thick.
  • 14. What may be the meaning of Glorified Bodies, in case the place of the Blessed shall be without the Con­vex of the Orb of the fixed Stars, if that the whole System of the World was made for the use of our Earth's Men.

The Principal Points of this Discourse.

  • 1. THAT London doubles in Forty Years, and all England in Three Hundred and Sixty Years.
  • 2. That there be, Anno 1682. about Six Hundred and Seventy Thousand Souls in London; and about Seven Millions, Four Hundred Thousand in all England and Wales, and about Twenty Eight Millions of Acres of profitable Land.
  • 3. That the Periods of doubling the People, are found to be in all Degrees, from between Ten to Twelve Hundred Years.
  • 4. That the Growth of London must stop of itself, before the Year 1800.
  • 5. A Table helping to understand the Scriptures, concerning the Number of People mentioned in them.
  • 6. That the World will be fully Peopled within the next Two Thousand Years.
  • [Page 10]7. Twelve ways whereby to Try any Pro­posal, pretended for the publick Good.
  • 8. How the City of London may be made (morally speaking) Invincible.
  • 9. An help to Uniformity in Religion.
  • 10. That 'tis possible to increase Man­kind by Generation four times more than at present.
  • 11. The Plagues of London are the Chief Impediment and Objection against the Growth of the City.
  • 12. That an exact Account of the People is necessary in this Matter.

Of the Growth of the City of LONDON, and of the Mea­sures, Periods, Causes and Consequences thereof.

BY the City of London, Wh [...] is me [...]t by Lo [...]on. we mean the Housing within the Walls of the Old City, with the Liberties thereof, Westminster, the Borough of Southwark, and so much of the built Ground in Middlesex and Surrey, whose Houses are contiguous unto, or within Call of those afore-mentioned. Or else we mean the Housing which stand upon the Ninety Seven Parishes within the Walls of Lon­don; upon the Sixteen Parishes next, without them; the Six Parishes of West­minster, and the Fourteen out-Parishes in Middlesex and Surrey, contiguous to the former, all which One Hundred and Thirty Three Parishes are compre­hended [Page 12]within the Weekly Bills of Mor­tality.

The Growth of this City is measured,Wha [...] is mea [...] by [...]he Gro [...]h of Lon [...]on.1. By the Quantity of Ground, or Num­ber of Acres upon which it stands. 2. By the Number of Houses, as the same ap­pears by the Hearth-Books and late Maps. 3. By the Cubical Content of the said Housing. 4. By the Flooring of the same. 5. By the Number of Days-work, or Charge of Building the said Houses. 6. By the Value of the said Houses, according to their yearly Rent, and Number of Years Purchase. 7. By the Number of Inhabitants; according to which latter Sense only, we make our Computation in this Essay.

Till a better Rule can be obtained, we conceive that the Proportion of the People may be sufficiently measured by the Proportion of the Burials in such Years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary Healthfulness or Sick­liness.

That the City hath Increased in this latter Sense, [...] what M [...]sures th [...] City ha [...] in­cr [...]sed. appears from the Bills of Mortality, represented in the two follow­ing Tables, viz. One whereof is a con­tinuation for Eighteen Years, ending 1682. of that Table which was publish­ed [Page 13]in the 117. Page of the Book of the Observations upon the London Bills of Mortality, Printed in the Year 1676. The other sheweth what Number of People died at a Medium of two Years, indifferently taken, at about Twenty Years distance from each other.

The first of the said two Tables.
Anno Dom.97 Pa­rishes.16 Pa­rishes.Out-Pa­rishes.Buried in all.Besides of the Plag.Christn'd
16655320124631092528708685969967
16661689396950821074019988997
166776164058641158073510938
166879668659603172671411633
1669132375001044019263312335
1670189078081050020198 11997
167117235938806315724512510
167222376788920018225512593
167323076302889017499511895
1674280175221087521198311851
167525555986870217243111775
167627566508946618730212399
167728176632961619065212626
1678306067051090820673512601
1679307474811117321728212288
1680307670661091121053 12747
1681366981361216623971 13355
1682297570091070720691 12353

According to which latter Table there died as followeth.

The latter of the said two Tables.
At a Medium between the YearsThere died in London, 
1604 and 16055135.A.
1621 and 16228527.B.
1641 and 164211883.C.
1661 and 166215148.D.
1681 and 168222331.E.

Wherein observe, That the Number C. is double to A. and 806 over. That D. is double to B. within 1906. That C. and D. is double to A. B. within 293. That E. is double to C. within 1435. That D. and E. is double to B. and C. with­in 3341. And that C. and D. and E. are double to A. and B. and C. within 1736. And that E. is above Quadruple to A. All which Differences (every way considered) do allow the doubling of the People of London in Forty Years, to be a sufficient estimate thereof in round Numbers, and without the trouble of Fractions. We also say, That 669930 is near the Number of People now in London, because the Burials are 22331. [Page 15]which multiplied by 30, (one dying yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94 p. of the afore-mentioned Observations) maketh the said Number; and because there are 84000 tenanted Houses (as we are credibly informed) which at eight in each, makes 672000 Souls; the said two Accounts differing inconsiderably from each other.

We have thus pretty well found out in what Number of Years (viz. in a­bout 40) that the City of London hath doubled, and the present Number of In­habitants to be about 670000. We must now also endeavour the same for the whole Territory of England and Wales. In order whereunto, we

First say, That the Assessment of Lon­don is about anThe Peo­ple of Lon­don are a­bout the 11th. part of all En­gland and Wales. Eleventh part of the whole Territory, and therefore that the People of the whole may well be Eleven times that of London, viz. aboutThe Peo­ple of En­gland a­bout seven Millions and Four Hundred Thousand. Seven Millions, Three Hundred Sixty Nine Thousand Souls; with which Account that of the Poll-Money, Hearth-Money, and the Bishops late numbring of the Commu­nicants, do pretty well agree; where­fore although the said Number of Seven Millions, Three Hundred Sixty Nine Thousand, be not (as it cannot be) a [Page 16] demonstrated Truth, yet it will serve for a good Supposition, which is as much as we want at present.

As for the time in which the People double, it is yet more hard to be found: For we have good Experience (in the said 94 pag. of the afore-mentioned Obser­vations) that in the Country, but one of fifty die per Annum; and by other late Accounts, that there have been sometimes but Twenty Four Births for Twenty Three Burials: The which two Points, if they were universally, and con­stantly true, there would be colour e­nough to say, that the People doubled but in about 1200 Years. As for Ex­ample: Suppose there be 600 People, of which let a fiftieth part die per An­num, then there shall die Twelve per An­num; and if the Births be as Twenty Four to Twenty Three, then the Increase of the People shall be somewhat above half a Man per Annum, and consequent­ly the supposed Number of 600, can­not be doubled but in 1126 Years, which to reckon in round Numbers, and for that the afore-mentioned Fracti­ons were not exact, we had rather call 1200.

There are also other good Observati­ons, That even in the Country, one in about 30, or 32 per Annum hath died, and that there have been five Births for four Burials. Now, according to this Do­ctrine, 20 will die per Annum out of the above 600, and 25 will be born, so as the Increase will be 5, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the said 600. So as we have two fair Computations, differing from each other as one to ten; and there are also several other good Observations for other Measures.

I might here insert, That altho the Births in this last Computation be 25 of 600, or a Twenty fourth part of the People; yet that in Natural possibility, they may be near thrice as many, and near 75. For that by some late Observations, the Teem­ing Females between 15 and 44, are a­bout 180 of the said 600, and the Males of between 18 and 59, are about 180 also, and that every Teeming Woman can bear a Child once in two Years; from all which it is plain, that the Births may be 90, (and abating 15 for Sickness, Young A­bortions, and Natural Barrenness) there may remain 75 Births, which is an Eighth of the People; which by some Observati­ons [Page 18]we have found to be but a two and thirtieth part, or but a quarter of what is thus shewn to be Naturally possible. Now, according to this Reckoning, if the Births may be 75 of 600, and the Burials but 15, then the Annual Increase of the People will be 60; and so the said 600 People may double in 10 Years, which differs yet more from 1200, a­bovementioned. Now to get out of this Difficulty, and to temper those vast disa­greements, I took the Medium of 50 and 30 dying per Annum, and pitch'd upon 40; and I also took the Medium between 24 Births and 23 Burials, and 5 Births for 4 Burials, viz. allowing about 10 Births for 9 Burials; upon which Supposition, there must die 15 per Annum out of the above-mentioned 600, and the Births must be 16 and two thirds, and the In­crease 1, and two Thirds, or five Thirds of a Man,That the time of doubling is here, and now 360 Years. which Number compared with 1800 Thirds, or 600 Men, gives 360 Years for the time of doubling (in­cluding some Allowance for Wars, Plagues, and Famine; the Effects whereof, though they be Terrible at the Times and Places where they happen, yet in a period of 360 Years, is no great matter in the [Page 19]whole Nation. For the Plagues of Eng­land in 20 Years hath carried away scarce an Eightieth part of the People of the whole Nation; and the late 10 Years Civil Wars, (the like whereof hath not been in several Ages before) did not take away above a fortieth part of the whole People.)

According to which Account or Mea­sure of doubling, if there be now in England and Wales, 7 Millions 400 Thou­sand People, there were about 5 Millions 526 Thousand in the beginning of Queen Elizabeths Reign, Anno 1560, and about two Millions at the Norman Conquest; of which Consult the Dooms-day Book, and My Lord Hale's Origination of Mankind.

Memorandum, 320 Mil­lions now in the World. That if the People double in 360 Years, that the present 320 Mil­lions, computed by some Learned Men, (from the Measures of all the Nations of the World, their degrees of being Peopled, and good Accounts of the People in several of them) to be now up­on the face of the Earth, will within the next 2000 Years. so increase, as to give one Head for every two Acres of Land in the Habitable part of the Earth. And then, according to the Prediction of the [Page 20] Scriptures, there must be Wars and great Slaughter, &c.

Wherefore, as an Expedient against the above-mentioned difference between 10 and 1200 Years, we do for the present, and in this Country admit of 360 Years to be the time wherein the People of Eng­land do double, according to the present Laws and Practice of Marriages.

Now, if the City double its People in 40 Years, and the present Number be 670 Thousand, and if the whole Territory be 7 Millions 400 Thousand, and double in 360 Years, as aforesaid; then by the underwritten Table it appears, that Anno 1840, the People of the City will be 10718880, and those of the whole Coun­try but 10917389, which is but incon­siderably more. Wherefore it is certain and necessary that the Growth of the City must stop before the said Year 1840; and will be at its utmost height in the next preceding Period, Anno 1800, when the Number of the City will be Eight times its present Number, viz. 5 Millions 359 Thousand. And when (besides the said Number) there will be 4 Millions 466 Thousand to perform the Tillage, Pasturage, and other Rural Works neces­sary [Page 21]to be done without the said City, as by the following Table, viz.

 Annis.Burials.People in London.People in England.
As in the former Tab.15652568770405526929
16055135  
164211883  
1682223316699307369230
172244662  
176289324  
180217864853594409825650
18423572961071888910917389

Now,That Lon­don will be at its highest growth, and eight times as great as now, Anno 1800. when the People of London shall come to be so near the People of all Eng­land, Then it follows, that the Growth of London must stop before the said Year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest height Anno 1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with a­bove 4 Millions for the Service of the Country and Ports, as aforesaid.

Of the afore-mentioned vast difference between 10 Years and 1200 Years for doubling the People, we make this use, viz. A digres­sion of the use of the vast dif­ference between 10 and 1200 Years of doubling.To justifie the Scriptures and all other good Histories concerning the Number of the People in Ancient Time. For sup­posing the Eight Persons who came out of the Ark, Increased by a Progressive doubling in every 10 Years, might grow [Page 22]in the first 100 Years after the Flood from 8 to 8000, and that in 350 Years after the Flood (whenabout Noah died) to one Million, and by this time 1682, to 320 Millions (which by rational conjecture, are thought to be now in the World) it will not be hard to compute, how in the intermediate Years, the Growths may be made, according to what is set down in the following Table, wherein making the doubling to be 10 Years at first, and within 1200 Years at last, we take a dis­cretionary liberty, but justifiable by Ob­servations and the Scriptures for the rest; which Table we leave to be Corrected by Historians, who know the bigness of An­cient Cities, Armies, and Colonies in the re­spective Ages of the World: in the mean time affirming, that without such difference in the Measures and Periods for doubling (the extreams whereof we have demon­strated to be real and true) it is impossible to solve what is written in the Holy Scri­ptures and other Authentick Books. For if we pitch upon any one Number through­out for this purpose, 150 Years is the fit­test of all round Numbers; according to which, there would have been but 512 Souls in the whole World in Moses's time [Page 23](being 800 Years after the Flood) when 603 Thousand Israelites of above 20 Years Old (besides those of other Ages, Tribes, and Nations) were found upon an exact Survey appointed by God; whereas our Table makes 12 Millions. And there would have been but 8000 in David's Time, when were found 1100 Thousand of above 20 Years Old (besides others, as aforesaid) in Israel, upon the Survey in­stigated by Satan; whereas our Table makes 32 Millions. And there would have been but a quarter of a Million about the Birth of Christ, or Augustus his Time, when Rome and the Roman Empire were so great; whereas our Table makes 100 Millions. Where Note, That the Israe­lites in about 500 Years, between their coming out of Egypt to David's Reign, increased from 603 Thousand to 1100 Thousand.

On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less Number, as 100 Years, the World would have been over-peopled 700 Years since. Wherefore no one Number will solve the Phaenomena; and therefore we have supposed several in order to make the following Table, which we a­gain desire Historians to Correct, ac­cording [Page 24]to what they find in Antiquity concerning the Number of the People in each Age and Country of the World.

We did (not long since) assist a worthy Divine, writing against some Scepticks, who would have baffled our belief of the Resurrection, by saying, that the whole Globe of the Earth could not furnish Matter enough for all the Bodies that must Rise at the last Day, much less would the surface of the Earth furnish footing for so vast a Number; whereas we did (by the Method aforementioned) assert the Number of Men now living, and also of those that had died since the beginning of the World; and did withal shew, that half the Island of Ireland would afford them all, not only Footing to stand upon, but Graves to lie down in, for that whole Number; and that two Mountains in that Country were as weigh­ty as all the B dies that had ever been from the beginning of the World to the Year 1680, when this Dispute hap­pened. For which purpose, I have di­gressed from my intended purpose, to in­sert this Matter, intending to prosecute this hint further, upon some more proper Occasion.

A Table shewing how the People might have doubled in the several Ages of the World.
Periods of doubling Anno after the Flood.Persons.
In 10 Years18
1016
2032
3064
40128
50256
60512
701024
802048
904096
1008000 and more.
In 20 Years120 Years after the Flood.16 Thousand.
14032
In 30 Years17064
200128
In 40 Years240256
In 50 Years290512
In 60 Years3501 Million and more.
In 70 Years4202 Millions.
In 100 Years5204 Millions.
In 190 Years7108 Millions.
In 290 Years100016
In Moses Time.
In 400 Years140032
About Davids Time.
In 550 Years195064
In 750 Years2700128
About the Birth of Christ.
In 1000 Years3700256
In 300 Years4000320
In 1000 Years

[Page 24] [...] [Page 25] [...]

It is here to be noted, That in this Table we have assigned a different Num­ber of Years for the time of doubling the People in the several Ages of the World, and might have done the same for the several Countries of the World, and therefore the said several Periods as­signed to the whole World in the Lump, may well enough consist with the Three Hundred and Sixty Years, especially as­signed to England, between this day, and the Norman Conquest; and the said Three Hundred and Sixty Years may well e­nough serve for a Supposition between this time, and that of the World's being fully Peopled: Nor do we lay any stress upon one or the other in this Disquisi­tion concerning the Growth of the City of London.

We have spoken of the Growth of London, with the Measures and Periods thereof, we come next to the Causes and Consequences of the same.

The Causes of its Growth from 1642 to 1682, may be said to have been as followeth, viz. From 1642 to 1650, that Men came out of the Countrey to London, to shelter themselves from the Outrages of the Civil Wars, during that time; [Page 27]from 1650 to 1660, the Royal Party came to London, for their more private and inexpensive Living; from 1660 to 1670, the King's Friends and Party came to receive his Favours after his Happy Restauration; from 1670 to 1680, the frequency of Plots and Parliaments, might bring extraordinary Numbers to the City; but what Reasons to assign for the like Increase from 1604 to 1642, I know not, unless I should pick out some Remarkable Accident happening in each part of the said Period, and make that to be the Cause of this Increase (as vulgar People make the Cause of every Man's Sickness to be what he did last eat) where­fore, rather than so to say, quidlibet de quolibet; I had rather quit even what I have above-said to be the Cause of Lon­don's Increase from 1642 to 1682, and put the whole upon some natural and spontaneous Benefits and Advantages that Men find by living in great more than in small Societies; and shall therefore seek for the Antecedent Causes of this Growth, in the Consequences of the like, consi­dered in greater Characters and Propor­tions.

Now, whereas in Arithmetick, out of two false Positions the Truth is ex­tracted, so I hope out of two extrava­gant contrary Suppositions, to draw forth some solid and consistent Conclusion, viz.

The first of the said two Suppositi­ons is, That the City of London is seven times bigger than now, and that the Inhabitants of it are four Millions Six Hundred and Ninety Thousand People; and that in all the other Cities, Ports, Towns and Villages, there are but two Millions Seven Hundred and Ten Thou­sand more.

The other Supposition is, That the City of London is but a seventh part of its present bigness, and that the Inhabi­tants of it are but Ninety Six Thousand, and that the rest of the Inhabitants (be­ing Seven Millions Three Hundred Four Thousand) do co-habit thus, One Hun­dred Four Thousand of them in small Cities and Towns, and that the rest, being seven Millions Two Hundred Thousand, do inhabit in Houses not contiguous to one another, viz. In Twelve Hundred Thousand Houses, having about Twenty Four Acres of Ground belonging to each [Page 29]of them, accounting about Twenty Eight Millions of Acres to be in the whole Territory of England, Wales, and the ad­jacent Islands; which any Man that pleases may examine upon a good Map.

Now, the Question is, In which of these imaginary States, would be the most convenient, commodious and comfortable Livings?

But this general Question divides it self into the several Questions, relating to the following Particulars, viz.

  • 1. For the Defence of the Kingdom against Foreign Powers.
  • 2. For preventing the Intestine Com­motions of Parties and Factions.
  • 3. For Peace and Uniformity in Re­ligion.
  • 4. For the Administration of Justice.
  • 5. For the proportionably Taxing of the People, and easie Levying the same.
  • 6. For Gain by Foreign Commerce.
  • 7. For Husbandry, Manufacture, and for Arts of Delight and Ornament.
  • 8. For lessening the Fatigue of Car­riages and Travelling.
  • [Page 30]9. For preventing Beggars and Thieves.
  • 10. For the Advancement and Propa­gation of Useful Learning.
  • 11. For Increasing the People by Gene­ration.
  • 12. For preventing the Mischiefs of Plagues and Contagions. And withal, which of the said two States is most Practicable and Natural; for in these and the like Particulars, do lie the Tests and Touchstones of all Proposals, that can be made for the Publick Good.

First, as to Practicable, we say, That although our said Extravagant Proposals are both in Nature possible, yet it is not Obvious to every Man to conceive, how London, now seven times bigger than in the beginning of Queen Elizabeth's Reign, should be seven times bigger than now it is, and Forty Nine times bigger than Anno 1560. To which I say, 1. That the present City of London stands upon less than Two Thousand Five Hundred Acres of Ground; where­fore a City seven times as large may stand upon Ten Thousand Five Hun­dred Acres, which is about equivalent to a Circle of Four Miles and a half in [Page 31]Diameter, and less than Fifteen Miles in Circumference. 2. That a Circle of Ground of Thirty Five Miles Semi-Diameter will bear Corn, Garden-stuff, Fruits, Hay, and Timber for the Four Mil­lions Six Hundred and Ninety Thousand Inhabitants of the said City and Circle, so as nothing of that kind need be brought from above Thirty Five Miles distance from the said City; for the Number of Acres within the said Cir­cle, reckoning Two Acres sufficient to furnish Bread and Drink-Corn for every Head, and Two Acres will furnish Hay for every necessary Horse; And that the Trees which may grow in the Hedge­rows of the Fields within the said Cir­cle, may furnish Timber for Six Hun­dred Thousand Houses. 3. That all live Cattel and great Animals can bring themselves to the said City; and that Fish can be brought from the Lands-end and Berwick, as easily as now. 4. Of Coals there is no doubt: And for Wa­ter, Twenty Shillings per Family (or Six Hundred Thousand Pounds per An­num in the whole) will serve this City, especially with the help of the New-River. But if by Practicable be understood, that [Page 32]the present State may be suddenly chang­ed into either of the Two above-men­tioned Proposals, I think it is not Pra­cticable. Wherefore the true Question is, unto or towards which of the said Two extravagant States is best to bend the present State by degrees, viz. Whether it be best to lessen or enlarge the pre­sent City? In order whereunto, we en­quire (as to the first Question) which State is most Defensible against Foreign Powers; saying. That if the above-men­tioned Housing, and a border of Ground, of Three Quarters of a Mile broad, were encompassed with a Wall and Ditch of Twenty Miles about (as strong as any in Europe, which would cost but a Million, or about a Peny in the Shil­ling of the House-Rent for one Year) what Foreign Prince could bring an Army from beyond Seas, able to beat, 1. Our Sea-Forces, and next with Horse harrass'd at Sea, to resist all the fresh Horse that England could make, and then Conquer above a Million of Men, well United, Disciplin'd, and Guarded within such a Wall, distant every where Three Quar­ters of a Mile from the Housing, to e­lude the Granadoes and great Shot of the [Page 33] Enemy? 2. As to Intestine Parties and Factions, I suppose that Four Millions Six Hundred and Ninety Thousand People united within this great City, could ea­sily Govern half the said Number scat­tered without it; and that a few Men in Arms within the said City and Wall, could also easily Govern the rest un­armed, or armed in such a manner as the Sovereign shall think fit. 3. As to Uni­formity in Religion, I conceive, That if St. Martin's Parish (may as it doth) consist of about Forty Thousand Souls, That this great City also may as well be made but as one Parish, with Seven times One Hundred and Thirty Chap­pels, in which might not only be an U­niformity of Common Prayer, but in Preaching also; for that a Thousand Co­pies of one Judiciously and Authentical­ly composed Sermon, might be every Week read in each of the said Chappels without any subsequent Repetition of the same, as in the Case of Homilies. Whereas in England (wherein are near Ten Thousand Parishes, in each of which upon Sundays, Holy-Days, and other ex­traordinary Occasions, there should be about One Hundred Sermons per Annum, [Page 34]making about a Million of Sermons per Annum in the whole:) It were a Mi­racle, if a Million of Sermons composed by so many Men, and of so many Minds and Methods, should produce Unifor­mity upon the discomposed Understand­ings of about Eight Millions of Hear­ers.

4. As to the Administration of Ju­stice. If in this great City shall dwell the Owners of all the Lands and other valuable Things in England; if within it shall be all the Traders, and all the Courts, Offices, Records, Juries, and Wit­nesses; then it follows, that Justice may be done with speed and ease.

5. As to the Equality and easie Levy­ing of Taxes. It is too certain, that London hath at some times paid near half the Excise of England; and that the Peo­ple pay thrice as much for the Hearths in London, as those in the Country, in proportion to the People of each; and that the Charge of Collecting these Du­ties, have been about a sixth part of the Duty it self. Now, in this great City, the Excise alone, according to the pre­sent Laws, would not only be double to the whole Kingdom, but also more equal. [Page 35]And the Duty of Hearths of the said City, would exceed the present proceed of the whole Kingdom: And as for the Customs, we mention them not at pre­sent.

6. Whether more would be gained by Foreign Commerce?

The Gain which England makes by Lead, Coals, the Freight of Shipping, &c. may be the same, for ought I see, in both Cases. But the Gain which is made by Manufactures, will be greater, as the Ma­nufacture it self is greater and better. For in so vast a City Manufactures will beget one another, and each Manufacture will be divided into as many parts as possible, whereby the Work of each Ar­tisan will be simple and easie; as for Example. In the making of a Watch, if one Man shall make the Wheels, ano­ther the Spring, another shall Engrave the Dial-plate, and another shall make the Cases, then the Watch will be better and cheaper, than if the whole Work be put upon any one Man. And we also see that in Towns, and in the Streets of a great Town, where all the Inhabi­tants are almost of one Trade, the Com­modity peculiar to those places is made [Page 36]better and cheaper than elsewhere. More­over, when all sorts of Manufactures are made in one place, there every Ship that goeth forth, can suddenly have its Load­ing of so many several Particulars and Species, as the Port whereunto she is bound can take off. Again, when the several Manufactures are made in one place, and shipped off in another, the Carriage, Postage, and Travelling-Charges will inhance the Price of such Manufa­cture, and lessen the Gain upon Foreign Commerce. And lastly, when the import­ed Goods are spent in the Port it self, where they are landed, the Carriage of the same into other places will create no surcharge upon such Commodity; all which particulars tend to the greater Gain by Foreign Commerce.

7. As for Arts of Delight and Orna­ment.

They are best promoted by the great­est Number of Emulators. And it is more likely that one ingenious, curious Man may rather be found out amongst Four Millions than Four Hundred Persons. But as for Husbandry, viz. Tillage and Pasturage, I see no Reason, but the second State (when each Family is charged with [Page 37]the Culture of about Twenty Four A­cres) will best promote the same.

8. As for lessening the Fatigue of Car­riage and Travelling.

The thing speaks it self; for if all the Men of Business, and all Artisans do live within Five Miles of each other: And if those who live without the great City, do spend only such Commodities as grow where they live, then the Charge of Carriage and Travelling could be little.

9. As to the preventing of Beggars and Thieves.

I do not find how the differences of the said two States should make much difference in this particular; for Impo­tents (which are but One in about Six Hundred) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2. Those who are unable to Work, through the evil Education of their Pa­rents, ought (for ought I know) to be maintained by their nearest Kindred, as a just Punishment upon them. 3. And those who cannot find Work (though able and willing to perform it) by rea­son of the unequal application of Hands to Lands, ought to be provided for by the Magistrate and Landlord till that can [Page 38]be done; for there needs be no Beggars in Countries, where there are many A­cres of unimproved improvable Land to every Head, as there are in England. As for Thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the same Cause; for it is against Nature, that any Man should venture his Life, Limb, or Liber­ty, for a wretched Livelihood, whereas moderate Labour will produce a better. But of this see Sir Thomas Moor, in the first part of his Utopia.

10. As to the Propagation and Improve­ment of Useful Learning.

The same may be said concerning it, as was above-said concerning Manufa­ctures, and the Arts of Delight and Or­nament; for in the great yast City, there can be no so odd a Conceit or Design, whereunto some Assistance may not be found, which in the thin, scattered way of Habitation may not be.

11. As for the Increase of People by Generatior,

I see no great difference from either of the two States, for the same may be hindred or promoted in either, from the same Causes.

12. As to the Plague.

It is to be remembred, that one time with another, a Plague happeneth in Lon­don once in Twenty Years, or there­abouts; for in the last Hundred Years, between the Years 1582 and 1682, there have been Five great Plagues, viz. Anno 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636 and 1665. And it is also to be remembred, that the Plagues of London do commonly kill one fifth part of the Inhabitants. Now, if the whole People of England do double but in Three Hundred and Sixty Years, then the Annual Increase of the same is but Twenty Thousand, and in Twenty Years Four Hundred Thousand. But if in the City of London there should be Two Millions of People, (as there will be about Sixty Years hence) then the Plague (killing one fifth of them, name­ly, Four Hundred Thousand once, in Twenty Years) will destroy as many in One Year, as the whole Nation can re­furnish in Twenty: And consequently the People of the Nation shall never Increase. But if the People of London shall be a­bove Four Millions (as in the first of our Two extravagant Suppositions is pre­mised) then the People of the whole [Page 40]Nation shall lessen above Twenty Thou­sand per Annum. So as if People be worth Seventy Pounds per Head (as hath elsewhere been shewn) then the said greatness of the City will be a damage to it self and the whole Nation of Four­teen Hundred Thousand Pounds per An­num, and so pro Rata, for a greater or lesser Number; wherefore to determine, which of the Two States is best, (that is to say, towards which of the said Two States, Authority should bend the present State) a just Balance ought to be made between the Disadvantages from the Plague, with the Advantages accruing from the other Particulars above-mention­ed; unto which Balance a more exact Account of the People, and a better Rule for the Measure of its Growth is ne­cessary, that what we have here given, or are yet able to lay down.

POSTSCRIPT.

IT was not very pertinent to a Discourse concerning the Growth of the City of London, to thrust in Considerations of the Time when the whole World will be fully Peopled; and how to justifie the Scriptures concerning the Number of Peo­ple mentioned in them; and concerning the Number of the Quick and the Dead, that may rise at the last Day, &c. Ne­vertheless, since some Friends liking the said Digressions and Impertinences (per­haps as Sawce to a dry Discourse) have desired that the same might be explained and made out: I therefore say as fol­loweth

  • 1. If the Number of Acres in the ha­bitable Part of the Earth, be under Fifty Thousand Millions; if Twenty Thousand Millions of People, are more than the said Number of Acres will feed; (few [Page 42]or no Countries being so fully peopled;) and for that in Six doublings (which will be in Two Thousand Years) the present Three Hundred and Twenty Mil­lions will exceed the said Twenty Thou­sand Millions.
  • 2. That the Number of all those who have died since the Flood, is the Sum of all the Products made by multiplying the Number of the doubling Periods mention­ed in the first Column of the last Table, by the Number of People respectively af­fixed to them, in the third Column of the same Table; the said Sum being di­vided by Forty (One dying out of Forty per Annum, out of the whole Mass of Man­kind) which Quotient is Twelve Thou­sand Five Hundred and Seventy Millions; whereunto may be added, for those that died before the Flood, enough to make the last mentioned Number Twenty Thousand Millions, as the full Number of all that died, from the beginning of the World, to the Year 1682; unto which, if Three Hundred and Twenty Millions, the Num­ber of those who are now alive, be added, the total of the Quick and the Dead will amount but to One Fifth Part of the Graves, which the surface of Ireland will [Page 43]afford, without ever putting two Bodies into one Grave; for there be in Ireland Twenty Eight Thousand square English Miles, each whereof will afford about Four Millions of Graves, and consequently a­bove One Hundred and Fourteen Thou­sand Millions of Graves, viz. about Five times the Number of the Quick and the Dead, which should arise at the last Day, in case the same had been in the Year 1682.
  • 3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many Graves in Ireland, as are sufficient for all that ever died; and if the Earth of one Grave weigh five times as much as the Body interred therein, then a Turf, less than a Foot thick, pared off from a fifth part of the surface of Ire­land, will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all the Bodies that ever were Buried; and may serve as well for that purpose, as the Two Mountains afore-mentioned in the Body of this Discourse. From all which it is plain, how madly they were mistaken, who did so petulantly vilifie what the Holy Scriptures have delivered.
FINIS.

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