¶ A Confutation of the tenne great Plagues and Calamities prognosticated by IOHN DOLETA, from the Country of Calabria.
FOr asmuch as this matter touching the end and consummation of the world shortly to happē, hath beene not long since amply handled, & sufficiētly debated: & of other throughly answered and confuted: I thinke it needlesse to spende any time vpon Doleta, concerning the same, and so much the rather for that he neither sheweth reason of his owne, or auethoritie of others, for ye maintenāce therof, but barely saith (if you please to credit him) that ye best Astronomers of Alexandria, Spaine, Italy, & Grecia, are of the same minde and opinion with him vsing the writers of the saide places like Mummers in a maske rather to make a shew, then to speake a worde, in that hee neither nameth the said Authours who they are, nor quoteth their testimony what it is: but they that are hitherto knowne to haue written thereof, vtterly disagree & discent from Doleta, in the determination of the said fatall or Climactericall yeare, they accompting the same to bee in 1588. but hee in 1587. and neither of them with [Page]anye great reason for the maintaining thereof, for when their reasons are at the best, they are but Sortilegious, Arithmeticall, and Pithagoricall: rather then Naturall, Philosophicall, or Astronomicall, depending Ex septenario & nouenario numero, & ex numerorum paritate & imparitate, wherein some of the fonder sorte, haue reposed such confidence, that they thought it very materiall (hauing occasion to vse Phisicke) rather to take fiue pilles then foure, seauen then sixe, and thinke that the foure-leaued grasse, ratione numerorum, shoulde be good for the quartaine ague, or as a three-leaued grasse for a tertian, & sic de caeteris: which opinions for that they are most childishe and ridiculous in the iudgement of the learned, I neede no longer refutation thereof, but will proceede to the answering of Doleta his fatall predictions, as touching the ten great plagues, or calamities like to happen (as he saith) in the saide yeare, foreshowen by a Starre (as hee saith) seene in Calabria: whiche howe true it was, the man and matter will sufficiently declare. For admitting it to bee the fourth Starre by him seene, then must it of necessitye follow, that either there were three other therewith, or seene before the same, which doubtles were of such small light & bignes, as they coulde not hitherto bee discerned of any except of Doleta who [Page]happely sawe further into a milstone then an other man, else was it the fourth of the nine sortes of Comets (if so bee there were any) remembred of the learned in their works whose names are these following, Ʋeris Cenaculum Partica, Miles, Dominus Asconae, Matutina, Argentum, Rosea & Nigra, the fourth whereof being Miles (construing his meaning to the best) coulde not bee of much lesse biggenes then the Moone, as Guido alleadging Ptholomy, thus writeth thereof, Cometa illa, que dicitur Miles, est de natura veneris, & est magna, admodum Lunae, & habet radium longum & crines similiter, &c. And therefore of sufficient lighr and biggenes to be seene of other men as well as of Doleta, and to other Countries as well as to Calabria, had there any such apparance been. And before the prediction thereof, it had beene first requisite he shoulde haue mentioned when it first began to appeare, in what Asterisme and constellation was his apparent and true place, with what signe and degree it made his reuolucion, what his Altitude Meridian, his right Assention, what Paralax it hadde, what Circle it described, what distaunce it had from the earth, the bignes of his Diameter, the content of the Solide, the length of the Taile, which waye it was extended: and lastly how long it was seen, and when it went out, which if he had done (as [Page]other learned men haue heretofore vpon ye sight of a Comet) thē would I haue said that he had proceeded orderly and like a scholler, and haue bene ready to haue giuen the better credite to the rest.
But to the first where he saith, In the yere 87. vvhen the Moone shalbe in a watry signe, that the worlde is like to be in daunger &c. And the Sun shalbe couered with a Dragon, from fiue a clocke in the morning, till nine, and will appeare like fire, therefore it is not good for any to beholde the same, least vnhappely he may lose his sight.
The Moone to be in a watrie signe is nothinge maruelous, sith that in eche Lunation, which is the space of twenty eight-daies, shee thrice passeth thorough watrie signes, making in the same no Deluge, nor working no such effect, when as the rest of the Planets were placed in the like signes with her, a thing hapning not long since, considering that the watrye Trigon or triplicitie is worne, his force decayed, & ready to make an end, and beginneth to yeelde ouer to the fiery triplicitie, at hand to enter &c. And to the rest, that the Sunne shalbe couered with a Dragon, if he vnderstand by the Dragō, Caput, or Caudam Draconis Lunae, the learned knowe that it is but an imagined intersection of two Circles or lines, the one called Circulus [Page]eccentricus, the other Linea ecliptica noni Orbis, without any bodily substance, and therfore can neither darken the sunne, or turne him into firie colour, hauing in it selfe neither qualitie to heate or to coole the same. But in case his meaning bee rather that Iunonius Draco shal leaue his seate between the two beares, & crosse the Eclipticke, in Via solis. That in reason is more absurde, vnlesse he proue vnto vs, that the Dragon must come downe from the 8. Sphere to the fourth, where the place of the Sunne is, or the Sunne clyme aboue the starrie firmament, whereas the sayde Asterisme is, which well he cannot before Assention day, which is long after the 25. day of March, or els the said Asterisme cannot possiblye ouer-shadowe the Sunne, obscuring his light. And it is no waye to be feared, that a terrestriall Dragon (were there any, as Gelnerus maketh great doubt) shall flie so high, or beare a body of that breadth and bignesse, that it shoulde ouer-shadowe the whole bodie of the Sunne the space of foure houres, the said body of the Sunne being more then 160. times bigger then the whole earth: for in what part of the earth shoulde first be fostered a Dragon of the said bignesse, not in Alexandria, Graecia, or Arabia, nor els where, vnlesse in the dizards of Calabria, from whence onely such marueiles do come.
[Page] To the second, touching The marueilous great water-floodes, vpon our Lady day in Lent, the 25. day of March, by feare whereof many people shall die. Being no reason shewed hereof, it may be thought, that Doleta thorough the ouer-muche moistnes of his braine, dreameth of inundations and flouds, vnlesse the Moone, being then Prope vrnam aquarij & effusionem aquae, hee inferreth the same. And the same Flouds to exceed, especially, in Calabria, where no doubt, then Calaber-furres will bee deare, for that the Calaber-skinns wil be most drowned, which may cause some lamentation in the Budge-row in the VVinter following.
To the thirde, which is, There shall arise a maruelous great winde, for feare whereof, many shalbe cōsumed, or distraught of their wits. This prediction is very generall, he telleth vs not what winde it shall bee, nor out of what quarter it shall come, it is not like to bee the sweete Zephirus or Subsolanus, nor yet the blustering Boreas, that can blowe from Calabria, ouer all the world, or cause these inconueniences by him resited, wherefore he doubtlesse meaneth, these windes ingendred in Microcosmo, as Colica passio, Ʋteri ac Ventriculi inflatio, capitis vertigo, and such like which may marre and consume many a good stomack, and dull, amaze, or distract the wittes and sences of the Parties [Page]troubled therewith, either els hee meaneth, the winde caused thorough the continuall motion and agitation, of the wings of the Calabrian Dragon so much mentioned.
To the fourth which is, The 12. daye of Maye, will arise an other wonderfull great Floud, and so great, as none the like since Noys-Floud, and continue three daies & three nightes, and many Cities and Townes standing on sandy grounds will be in great danger. Two great floudes within two monethes, that goeth harde, but if they bee generall, and throw downe Cities and Townes in Calabria and else-where: Sheperton-Church, must needes bee in great perill, for it is built vpon sandye ground, and already in hazarde. The best is, it must last no lōger then Ionas was in ye whales belly, three daies, and three nights, the reason of which prediction, happely is, for that the Sunne principal Luminary obscured with his Dragon, at the same time will be in Longitudine cum Orione, which Orion, as the Poets affirme, was made Ex vrina deorum, and therfore so much wet and moisture to abound: either els for that the beginning of the Raine in the time of the Deluge happened in the saide moneth, now threatning the like.
To the fifth, which is, Infidels and heretikes for feare will flie and gather together, [Page]and a great part of Christendome in danger to be ouerthrowne. That Infidels and Heretikes feare, it is no harme, that they wil willingly flie, it is not lyke: I am sorie he hath no better groundes to builde his iudgement on in this pointe. But the ouerthrowe of a great part of Christendome is farre vnlike, for God hath promised to saue his owne, although he chasten like a louing father, and toward the ende of the worlde the number of the elect are promised to increase, and the Gospel to be plentifully preached throughout all nations, & ioyfully of them receiued.
To the sixt, which is: After the great waters in the saide yeare, on S. Margarets daye in the Dog dayes, will bee a great and fearefull death, for the pestilence will bee in such force, that fewe places in Christendome will be free. And howe is that like, insomuch that so great plentie of water going before, and cleansing and washing away the filthie sliminesse, & vncleannes of the earth, the causes of vnhealthfulnes and infection, as also his great & mightie winds dispersing the vnwholesome cloudes and ill vapours, and thereby clearing and preseruing the ayre from putrefaction and corruption, the especial causes of pestilence, and lyke contagion, the heauens & heauenly influences threatning no such thing vnlesse that he feared [Page]that this day through the vertue of the Saint, whose name it beareth, might ende and destroy his Calabrian Dragon, for that S. Margaret is written to haue destroied the Dragon, & by reason hereof, such pestilent and corrupt vapors to euaporate and breath out of the said Dragōs bodie so wounded and corrupted, which may fill and infect the aire therewith, which dogtricke of his happening in the Dog daies, as it maye cause (when it happens) death and mortalitie, so will it againe cause Sanguis Draconis to bee verie plentie, good tidings and ioyfull newes to the Apothecarie.
To the seuenth, which is: There will bee through the world great chaunge of Religion, and wonderfull straunge newes vnto all people as touching the same. This of all the rest is a most vnlikely thing. For that towarde the ende of the worlde, Christ hath promised to increase the nūber of his elect, as also that his truth shall perseuer vnto the ende & in the ende. Vnlesse he meane the infidels shal be conuerted to christianitie, and the heretiks to recant their heresies, and acknowledge the gospel and veritie, as by the prediction following it seemeth he meaneth no lesse, in that hee saith, The Infidels shal flye vnto the christians, & the Turke shall lose his scepter. Which thing, although it seemeth straunge, yet hath it beene long of [Page]the faithfull hoped, and is of all true Christians hartely to be wished,
To the eight, which is. The Turke with his Mahomes shall lose his Scepter, and a great chaunge in his regiment thorough hunger and warrs, so that most will rather seek helpe of the Christians, then at his hands. This is as ye would say, to good to be true. For how is it like that an Empire which hath been so long establishing, in one yeare to bee ouerthrowne. Well maye it decrease, Peditentim as it were, but not sodainely ouerthrowne (although God at his pleasure can destroye it) it followeth not that he wil doe the same: for he is called omnipotent, Non quia ommia vult, sed quia omnia potest, & a posse ad esse non valet argumentum, And meanes and not by againe, hee worketh by miracles in this age, I rather would wish that the Turke might bee conuerted to the faith of Christ, then lose his scepter. For in case he lose the same, and an egge harcht of the same birde succeede him therein, what auayleth it to the profit of the Church, or comfort of the congregation of the faithfull? And herein M. Doleta greatly forgetteth himselfe, where he saith that the Turkes shall seeke helpe at the christians, and before that the greatest part of Christendome shall be ouerthrowne. But happely he careth not what he saith, be it neuer so contrary, [Page]so he may seeme to say somewhat at all.
To the ninth, which is: There will also arise great Earthquakes, and the fruit of trees will be very strange and hollow within. This is a thing possible, though not likely, and very hard for any to prognosticate, were he of much more sufficiency then Iohn Doleta, declareth himself to be. For were hee throughly apposed, I doubt he would hardly shew the causes Philosophicall and Naturall of Earthquakes, and whereof the saide Earthquakes are caused and ingendred, in that his doctrine hath beene so grosse and palpable in the rest. And as for the fruits which shall be hollow within. I am perswaded he is moued so to thinke, for that (further reason see I none) because he seeth people so hollow harted at these dayes, thinking that other fruites of the earth woulde produe accordingly. Either els that much fruite the saide yeare will proue worme-eaten, & consequently hollow within, which thing is nothing strange.
Lastly to the tenth, which is: On saint Bartholomews day, will be great mouinges of the earth, both on hilles and vallies, for feare whereof fewe shall remaine aliue. This prediction of all other is most straunge and vnlikely, vnlesse Doleta be of opinion with other some, that the Sunne standeth still & the earth moueth about, and hilles, and vallies as parte [Page]thereof follow the same, and so fall or stumble into some of those degrees, termed of the Astronomers, gradus puteales, and to proue this conceite and opinion aforesaide, hee may happely make so good a Demonstration, as I knewe a young gentleman of like opinton, who sayling from London to Graues-end, imagined himselfe and the vessell to stand still, and the trees and firme lande to moue and depart from him: this ye see the force and fruit of a strong imagination, which with the rest I refer to your deliberate iudgement, & good consideration. Else doth hee happely meane the mouing vppe of the earth, thorough the rooting of swine or casting of moles, which in truth may doe much hurt, especially to the husband-man: I hope none other mouings shalbe seen in this our Country, no more then any of the rest of his ten plagues presaged, and before mentioned: which as they were prognosticated without Art or learning, so shall they come to passe, Nusquam & Nunquam, and all men say,
Thus hauing thoroughly viewed these newes from Calabria, I wish all men to be resolued that as they are rashely published by the Author (a fellow of Brazenface Colledg) & not like to come to effect, so would they not worse esteem of good Artes (whose commodities are [Page]great, & conclusions most profitable) when they are published by those that are (in truth) learned therein, and of zeale and good meaning deliuer them to the worker, the rather when they see these predictions which the blind-Baiards and the vnlearned in Astronomye set forth altogeather wt out effect, as hath of late (too often) béen seen, which I pray God almighty at his pleasure to amende and long to continue the happy and prosperous estate of our dread & soueraign Lady the Queenes Maiestie, graunting her to haue such loyall, and obedient subiectes as may ioyfully, and willingly followe and obserue all such holesome, & profitable Lawes as her Maiestie and her honourable Counsell shall directe & appoint them, whereby it may be iustly verified. Quod corpora inferiora reguntur à superioribus corumque sequuntur motum.
The Conclusion.
THus (Christian Reader) hauing sufficiently disprooued these friuolous newes, I would not haue any man to think that it is my meaning to perswade the world to sleep in security, and that vvee haue no neede to be vigilant to vvatch and to pray vvith all humility: Either els, that there [Page]is no tokens of Gods wrath threatned for sinne, the contrarie whereof, vvould euidently appeare, if wee did but looke into the common manners of the people. For neuer vvas there seene such excesse in apparell, chiefly in the meaner sort, neuer such pride in all degrees, neuer such coue tousnes in the rich, such extortion in the vvealthie, such vsery, crueltie, disloyaltie, whoredome, theft, idlenesse, enuie, malice. So that a man may boldly saye, the weather is not at this season so colde, but Charity is tvvise so colde. All vvhiche are manifest tokens of Gods heauy displeasure euen at hand which partly we feele by this bitter dearth vvithout neede, through out all the land. A fatherly scourge surely for our iniquities, especially for neglecting our dutie to God and our Soueraign, whose health is our safty. Therfore it is high time that we fall to hearty repentaunce, the onely salue against sinne, after the example of the greate citie Niniuie. And then vndoubtedly God vvill turne from vs all those plagues whiche the signes of heauen shall at any time forevvarne vs of, beeing the sure tokens of his loue and fauour toward his Chuch and chosen, as well as of his vvrath and vengeaunce against the vvicked, whereof the greatest Cities, and mightiest Nations in all ages can beare vvitnesse: VVhich vvell may put vs in minde of his almightie vvisedome and eternal prouidence, which in the beginning established the heauens, causing them to mooue vvith such harmonye and constant regularitie, that from time to time, they might foresheey not onely the natures and inclinations of men, but also the great mutations of times and the subuersions of Countries, warres depopulations deuastations plague, Pestilence, famine, and infinite other miseries vvhich he keepeth in store (against all such as either vvilfully, or negligently forget him, or oppose themselues against his vvorde and vvill) to vvhome be all honour and glorie, vvorld vvithout end, Amen.