OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DVBLIN-Bills of Mortality, 1681. AND THE State of that CITY
THE Observations upon the London-Bills of Mortality have been a new Light to the World; and the like Observation upon those of Dublin, may serve as Snuffers to make the same Candle burn clearer.
The London-Observations flowed from Bills regularly kept for near One hundred years; but these are squeezed out of Six stragling London-Bills, out of Fifteen Dublin Bills, and from a Note of the Families and Hearths in each Parish of Dublin; which are all digested into the one Table or Sheet annexed, consisting of Three Parts, markt A, B, C; being indeed the A, B, C, of Publick Oeconomy, and even of that Policy which tends to Peace and Plenty.
Observations upon the Table A.
1. THe Total of the Burials in London, (for the said Six stragling years mentioned in the Table A) is 120170; whereof the Medium or Sixth part is 20028; and exceeds the Burials of Paris, as may appear by the late Bills of that City.
2. The Births, for the same time, are 73683, the Medium or Sixth part whereof is 12280, which is about Five eighth parts of the Burials; and shews, that London would in time decrease quite away, were it not supplyed out of the Countrey, where are about Five Births for Four Burials, the proportion of Breeders in the Country being greater than in the City.
3. The Burials in Dublin for the said Six years, were 9865, the Sixth part or Medium whereof is, 1644, which is about the Twelfth part of the London-Burials; and about a Fifth part over. So as the people of London do hereby seem to be above Twelve times as many as those of Dublin.
4. The Births in the same time at Dublin, are 6157, the Sixth part or Medium whereof is 1026, which is also about five eighth parts of the 1644 Burials; which shews, that the [Page 3] proportion between Burials and Births are alike at London and Dublin, and that the Accompts are kept alike; and consequenly are likely to be true, there being no Confederacy for that purpose: Which if they be true, we then say,
5. That the Births are the best way (till the Accompts of the people shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the Increase and Decrease of People, that of Burials being subject to more Contingencies and variety of Causes.
6. If Births be as yet the measure of the People, and that the Births (as has been shewn) are as Five to Eight, then Eight fifths of the Births is the number of the Burials, where the year was not considerable for extraordinary Sickness or Salubrity; and is the Rule whereby to measure the same. As for Example: The Medium of Births in Dublin was 1026, the Eight fifths whereof is 1641, but the real Burials were 1644; so as in the said years they differed little from the 1641, which was the Standard of Health; and consequently, the years 1680, 1674, and 1668, were sickly years, more or less, as they exceeded the said Number 1641; and the rest were healthful years, more or less, as they fell short of the same number. But the City was more or less Populous, as the Births differed [Page 4] from the Number 1026; viz. Populous in the years 1680, 1679, 1678, & 1668: For other causes of this difference in Births, are very occult and uncertain.
7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves also for London.
8. It hath already been observ'd by the London-Bills, That there are more Males than Females. It is to be further noted, that in these Six London-Bills also, there is not one instance either in the Births or Burials to the contrary.
9. It hath been formerly observ'd, That in the years wherein most dye, fewest are born, & vice versâ. The same may be further observ'd in Males and Females, viz. When fewest Males are born, then most dye: for here the Males dyed as Twelve to Eleven, which is above the mean proportion of Fourteen to Thirteen; but were born but as Nineteen to Eighteen, which is below the same.
Observations upon the Table B.
1 FRom the Table B, it appears, That the Medium of the Fifteen years Burials, (being 24199) is 1613. whereas the Medium of the other six years in the Table A, was 1644, and that the Medium of the Fifteen [Page 5] years Births (being in all 14765) is 984, whereas the Medium of the said other six years, was 1026. That is to say, there were both fewer Births and Burials in these Fifteen years, than in the other six years; which is a probable sign that at a Medium there were fewer People also.
2. The Medium of Births for the Fifteen years being 984, whereof Eight fifths (being 1576) is the Standard of Health for the said Fifteen years; and the triple of the said 1576, being 4728, is the standard for each of the Ternaries of the Fifteen years within the said Table.
3. That 2952, the triple of 984 Births, is for each Ternary the Standard of Peoples increase and decrease from the year 1666 to 1680 inclusive, viz. The People increased in the second Ternary, and decreased from the same in the Third and Fourth Ternarys, but re-increased in the Fifth Ternary beyond any other.
4. That the last Ternary was withal very healthful, the Burials being but 4624, viz. below 4728, the Standard.
5. That according to this proportion of increase, the Housing of Dublin have probably increased also.
Observations upon the Table C.
1. FIrst, from the Table C, it appears, 1. That the Housing of Dublin is such, as that there are not five Hearths in each House one with another, but nearer five than four.
2. That in St. Warburghs Parish are near six Hearths to an House. In St. Iohns five. In St. Michaels above five. In St. Nicholas within above six. In Christ-Church above seven. In St. Iames's, and St. Katherines, and in St. Michans, not four. In St. Kevans about four.
3. That in St. James's, St. Michans, St. Brides, St. Warburgh, St. Andrews, St. Michaels, and St. Patricks, all the Christnings were but 550, and the Burials 1055, viz. near double; and that in the rest of the Parishes the Christnings were five, and the Burials seven, viz. as 457 to 634. Now whether the cause of this difference were negligence in Accompts, or the greaterness of the Families, &c. is worth inquiring.
4. It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) these Parishes ought to stand, some having most Families; some most Hearths, some most Births, and others most Burials. Some Parishes exceeding the rest in two, [Page 7] others in three of the said four particulars, but none in all four. Wherefore this Table ranketh them according to the plurality of the said four particulars wherein each excelleth the other.
5. The London-Observations reckon eight heads to be in each Family; according to which estimation, there are 32000 Souls in the 4000 Families of Dublin; which is but half of what most Men imagine; of which but about one sixth part are able to bear Arms, besides the Royal Regiment.
6. Without the knowledge of the true number of People, as a Principle, the whole scope and use of the keeping Bills of Births and Burials is impaired; wherefore by laborious Conjectures and Calculations to deduce the number of People from the Births and Burials, may be Ingenious, but very preposterous.
7. If the number of Families in Dublin be about 4000, then Ten Men, in one week (at the Charge of about Five pound, Surveying Eight Families in an hour) may directly, and without Algebra, make an Accompt of the whole People, expressing their several Ages, Sex, Marriages, Title, Trade, Religion, &c. and those who survey the Hearths, or the Constables or Parish Clarks, (may, if required) do the same ex Officio, and without other [Page 8] Charge, by the Command of the Chief Governor, the Diocesan, or the Mayor.
8. The Bills of London have since their beginning, admitted several Alterations and Improvements; and eight or ten pound per annum surcharge, would make the Bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and become an excellent Instrument of Government. To which purpose the Forms for Weekly, Quarterly, and Yearly Bills are humbly recommended, viz.