ANOTHER ESSAY IN Political Arithmetick, Concerning the Growth of the CITY OF LONDON: WITH THE Measures, Periods, Causes, and Consequences there­of. 1682.

By Sir William Petty, Fellow of the ROYAL SOCIETY.

LONDON: Printed by H. H. for Mark Pardoe, at the Black Raven▪ over against Bedford-House, in the Strand. 1683.

The Principal Points of this Discourse.

  • 1. THAT London doubles in Forty Years, and all England in Three hundred and sixty Years.
  • 2. That there be, Anno 1682. about Six hundred and seventy Thousand Souls in London, and about seven Millions, four hundred Thousand in all England and Wales; and about twen­ty eight Millions of Acres of Land.
  • 3. That the Periods of doubling the People, are found to be in all Degrees, from between Ten, to Twelve hundred Years.
  • 4. That the Growth of London must stop of its self, before the Year 1800.
  • 5. A Table helping to understand the Scriptures, concerning the Number of People mentioned in them.
  • [Page]6. That the World will be fully Peo­pled within the next Two Thousand Years.
  • 7. Twelve Touch-stones, whereby to Try any Proposal, pretended for the Publick Good.
  • 8. How the City of London may be made (Morally speaking) Invincible.
  • 9. An Help to Vniformity in Reli­gion.
  • 10. That 'tis possible to increase Mankind by Generation four times more than at present.
  • 11. The Plagues of London is the Chief Impediment and Objection a­gainst the Growth of the City.
  • 12. That an Exact Account of the People is Necessary in this Matter.

Of the Growth of the CITY of LONDON: And of the Measures, Periods, Causes, and Consequences thereof.

BY the City of London, What is meant by London. we mean the Housing within the Walls of the Old City, with the Liberties thereof, Westminster, the Burrough of Southwark, and so much of the built Ground in Middlesex and Surrey, whose Houses are contiguous unto, or within Call of those afore-men­tioned. Or else we mean the Hou­sing which stand upon the Ninety seven Parishes within the Walls of London; upon the Sixteen Parishes next, without them; the Ten Parishes of Westminster, and the Seven Parishes [Page 6] without them all; all which One hundred and thirty Parishes are com­prehended within the Weekly Bills of Mortality.

The Growth of this City is Measured,What is meant by the Growth of London. 1. By the Quantity of Ground, or Number of Acres upon which it stands. 2. By the Number of Houses, as the same appears by the Hearth-Books and late Maps. 3. By the Cubical Content of the said Housing. 4. By the Flooring of the same. 5. By the Number of Days-work, or Charge of Building the said Houses. 6. By the Value of the said Houses, according to their Yearly Rent, and Number of Years Purchase. 7. By the Number of In­habitants; according to which lat­ter sense only, we make our Com­putations in this Essay.

Till a better Rule can be obtain­ed, we conceive that the Proportion [Page 7] of the People may be sufficiently Measured by the Proportion of the Burials in such Years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary Health­fulness or Sickliness.

That the City hath In­creased in this latter sense,In what Mea­sures the City hath Increased. appears from the Bills of Mortality, represented in the two following Tables, viz. One where­of is a continuation for Eighteen Years, ending 1682, of that Table which was Published in the 117th. pag. of the Book of the Observati­ons upon the London Bills of Mor­tality, Printed in the Year 1676. The other sheweth what Number of People dyed at a Medium of two Years, indifferently taken, at about Twenty Years distance from each other.

[Page 8]

The first of the said two Tables.
An. Dom.97 Parishes.16 Parishes.One Parishes.Buried in all.Besides of the Plague.Christened.
16655320124631092528708685969967
16661689396950821074019988997
1667776164058641158073510938
1668 [...]79668659603172671411633
1669132375001044019263312335
1670189078081050020198 11997
167117235938806315724512510
167222376788920018225512593
167323076302889017499511895
1674280175221087521198311851
167525555986870217243111775
167627566508946618730212399
167728176632961619065212626
1678306067051090820673512601
1679307474811117321728212288
1680307670661091121053 12747
1681366981361216623971 13355
1682297570091070720691 12653

According to which latter Table, there dyed as followeth.

[Page 9]

The latter of tie said two Tables.There dyed in London, At a Medium between the Years.
1604 and 1605—5135.A.
1621 and 1622—8527.B.
1641 and 1642—11883.C.
1661 and 1662—15148.D.
1681 and 1682—22331.E.

Wherein Observe, That the Num­ber C. is double to A. and 806 over. That D. is double to B. with­in 1906. That C and D. is double to A. B. within 293. That E. is double to C. within 1435. That D. and E. is double to B. and C. within 3341. And that C. and D. and E. are double to A. and B. and C. within 1736. And that E. is above Quadruple to A. All which differences (every way considered) do allow the doubling of the Peo­ple of London in forty Years, to be a sufficient estimate thereof in round [Page 10] Numbers, and without the trouble of Fractions. We also say, That 669930 is near the Number of Peo­ple now in London, because the Bu­rials are 22331. which Multiplyed by 30, one dying Yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94 pag. of the afore­mentioned Observations) maketh the said Number; and because there are 84 Thousand Tenanted Houses (as we are Credibly Informed) which at [...]8 in each, makes. 672 Thousand Souls; the said two Accounts differing in considerably from each other.

We have thus pretty well sound out in what Number of Years (viz. in about 40▪) that the City of Lon­don▪ hath doubled, and the present Number of Inhabitants to be about 670 Thousand. We must now also endeavour the same for the whole Territory of England and Wales. In Order whereunto, we▪

[Page 11]First say,The People of London are a­bout the Ele­venth part of all England and Wales. That the As­sessment of London is a­bout an Eleventh part of the whole Territory, and therefore that the People of the whole may well be Eleven times that of London, viz. The People of England about 7 Millions and 400 Thousand. about 7 Millions, 369 Thousand Souls; with which Account that of the Poll-money, Hearth-money, and the Bishops late Numbring of the Communicants, do pretty well agree; wherefore although the said Num­ber of 7 Millions, 369 Thousand, be not (as it cannot be) a demonstra­ted Truth, yet it will serve for a good Supposition, which is as much as we want at present.

As for the time in which the Peo­ple double, it is yet more hard to be found: For we have good Ex­perience (in the said 94 pag. of the afore-mentioned Observations) That [Page 12] in the Countrey, but one of fifty dye per Annum; and by other late Accounts, that there have been some­times but 24 Births for 23 Burials, The which two points, if they were universally, and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say, that the People doubled but in about 1200 Years. As for Example: Sup­pose there be 600 people, of which let a fiftieth part dye per Annum, then there shall dye 12 per Annum; and if the Births be as 24 to 23, then the Increase of the People shall be some­what above half a Man per Annum, and consequently the supposed Num­ber of 600, cannot be doubled but in 1126 Years, which to reckon in round Numbers, and for that the afore-mentioned Fractions were not exact, we had rather call 1200.

There are also other good Obser­vations, That even in the Countrey, one in about 30, or 32 per Annum [Page 13] hath dyed, and that there have been five Births for four Burials. Now, according to this Doctrine, 20 will dye per Annum out of the above 600, and 25 will be Born, so as the In­crease will be 5, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the said 600. So as we have two fair Computations, differing from each other as one to ten; and there are also several other good Observations for other Mea­sures.

I might here Insert, That although the Births in this last Computation be 25 of 600, or a Twenty fourth part of the People; yet that in Na­tural possibility, they may be near thrice as many, and near 75. For that by some late Observations, the Teeming Females between 15 and 44, are about 180 of the said 600, and the Males of between 18 and 59, are about 180 also, and that every Teeming Woman can bear a Child [Page 14] once in two Years; from all which it is plain, that the Births may be 90. (and abating 15 for Sickness, Young Abortions, and Natural Bar­renness) there may remain 75 Births, which is an Eighth of the People; which by some Observations we have found to be but a two and thir­tieth part, or but a quarter of what is thus shewn to be Naturally pos­sible. Now, according to this Rec­koning, if the Births may be 75 of 600, and the Burials but 15, then the Annual Increase of the People will be 60; and so the said 600 People may double in 10 Years, which dif­fers yet more from 1200, above-mentioned. Now, to get out of this Difficulty, and to temper those vast disagreements, I took the Me­dium of 50 and 30 dying per Annum, and pitch'd upon 40; and I also took the Medium between 24 Births and 23 Burials, and 5 Births for 4 Bu­rials, [Page 15] viz. allowing about 10 Births for 9 Burials; upon which Suppo­sition, there must dye 15 per Annum out of the above-mentioned 600, and the Births must be 16 and two Thirds, and the Increase 1, and two Thirds, or five Thirds of a Man, which Number compa­red with 1800 Thirds, That the time of doubling is here and now 360 Years. or 600 Men, gives 360 Years for the time of doubling (including some Allow­ance for Wars, Plagues, and Famine, the Effects whereof, though they be Terrible at the Times and Places where they happen, yet in a period of 360 Years, is no great Matter in the whole Nation. For the Plagues of England in 20 Years hath carried away scarce an Eightieth part of the People of the whole Nation; and the late 10 Years Civil Wars, (the like whereof hath not been in seve­ral Ages before) did not take away [Page 16] above a fortieth part of the whole People.)

According to which Account or Measure of doubling, if there be now in England and Wales, 7 Mil­lions 400 Thousand People, there were about 5 Millions 526 Thou­sand in the beginning of Queen Eli­zabeths Reign, Anno 1560. and about two Millions at the Norman Conquest, of which Consult the Dooms day Book, and my Lord Hale's Origi­ [...]ation of Mankind.

Memorandum, 320 Milli­ons now in the World. That if the People double in 360 Years, that the present 320 Millions computed by some Learned Men, (from the Measures of all the Nations of the World, their de­grees of being Peopled, and good Accounts of the people in several of them) to be now upon the Face of the Earth, will within the next 2000 Years, so increase, as to give one [Page 17] Head for every two Acres of Land in the Habitable part of the Earth. And then, according to the Predicti­on of the Scriptures, there must be Wars and great Slaughter, &c.

Wherefore, as an Expedient against the above-mentioned difference be­tween 10 and 1200 Years, we do for the present, and in this Coun­trey admit of 360 Years to be the time wherein the People of England do double, according to the present Laws and Practice of Marriages.

Now, if the City double its Peo­ple in 40 Years, and the present Num­ber be 670 Thousand, and if the whole Territory be 7 Millions 400 Thousand, and double in 360 Years, as aforesaid; then by the under­written Table it appears, that Anno 1840, the People of the City will be 10718880, and those of the whole Country but 10917389, which is but inconsiderably more. Where­fore [Page 18] it is Certain and Necessary that the Growth of the City must stop be­fore the said Year 1840: And will be at its utmost height in the next pre­ceeding Period, Anno 1800, when the Number of the City will be Eight times its present Number, viz. 5 Millions 359 Thousand. And when (besides the said Number) there will be 4 Millions 466 Thou­sand to perform the Tillage, Pastu­rage, and other Rural Works Neces­sary to be done without the said City, as by the following Table, viz.

 Annis.Burials.People in London.People in England.
 1565—2568770405526929.
As in the former Table.1605—5135  
1642—11883  
1682—223316699307369230.
 1722—44662  
 1762—89324  
 1802—17864853594409825650.
 1842—3572961071888010917389.

[Page 19]Now,That London will be at its highest growth, and eight times as great as now, Anno 1800. when the Peo­ple of London shall come to be so near the People of all England, Then it follows, That the Growth of London must stop before the said Year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest height Anno 1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with above four Milli­ons for the Service of the Countrey and Ports, as aforesaid.

Of the afore-mentioned vast difference between 10 Years and 1200 Years for doubling the People,A digression of the use of the vast dif­ference be­tween 10 and 1200 Years of doubling. we make this use, viz. To ju­stifie the Scriptures and all other good Histories concerning the Number of the People in Ancient Time. For supposing the Eight Per­sons who came out of the Ark, In­creased by a Progressive doubling in every 10 Years, might grow in the [Page 20] first 100 Years after the Flood from 8 to 8000, and that in 350 Years after the Flood (when abouts Noah dyed) to one Million, and by this time 1682, to 320 Millions (which by rational conjecture, are thought to be now in the World) it will not be hard to compute, how in the in­termediate Years, the Growths may be made, according to what is set down in the following Table, where­in making the doubling to be 10 Years at first, and within 1200 Years at last, we take a discretionary liberty, but justifiable by Observations and the Scriptures for the rest, which Table we leave to be Corrected by Historians, who know the bigness of Ancient Cities, Armies, and Colonies in the respective Ages of the World, in the mean time affirming that with­out such difference in the Measures and Periods for doubling (the ex­treams whereof we have demonstra­ted [Page 21] to be real and true) it is impos­sible to solve what is written in the Holy Scriptures and other Authentick Books. For if we pitch upon any one Number throughout for this purpose, 150 Years is the fittest of all round Numbers; according to which, there would have been but 512 Souls in the whole World in Moses's time (being 800 Years after the Flood) when 603 Thousand Israèlites of above 20 Years Old (be­sides those of other Ages, Tribes, and Nations) were found upon an exact Survey appointed by God, Whereas our Table makes 12 Milli­ons. And there would have been but 8000 in David's Time, when were found 1100 Thousand of above 20 Years Old (besides others, as aforesaid) in Israel, upon the Sur­vey instigated by Satan, whereas our Table makes 32 Millions. And there would have been but a quarter of a [Page 22] Million about the Birth of Christ, or Augustus his Time, when Rome and the Roman Empire were so great, whereas our Table makes 100 Mil­lions. Where Note, That the Is­raelites in about 500 Years between their coming out of Egypt to David's Reign, increased from 603 Thou­sand to 1100 Thousand.

On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less Number, as 100 Years, the World would have been over­peopled 700 Years since. Wherefore, no one Number will solve the Phaeno­mena, and therefore we have sup­posed several in Order to make the following Table, which we again desire Historians to Correct, accord­ing to what they find in Antiquity concerning the Number of the Peo­ple in each Age and Countrey of the World.

We did (not long since) assist a worthy Divine, writing against some [Page 23] Scepticks, who would have baffled our belief of the Resurrection, by saying, that the whole Globe of the Earth could not furnish Matter enough for all the Bodies that must Rise at the last Day, much less would the surface of the Earth furnish footing for so vast a Number; where­as we did (by the Method afore­mentioned) assert the Number of Men now living, and also of those that had dyed since the beginning of the World, and did withal shew, that half the Island of Ireland would afford them all, not only Footing to stand upon, but Graves to lye down in, for that whole Number; and that two Mountains in that Countrey were as weighty as all the Bodies that had ever been from the beginning of the World to the Year 1680, when this Dispute happened. For which purpose, I have digressed from my intended purpose, to insert [Page 24] this Matter, intending to prosecute this hint further, upon some more proper Occasion.

A Table shewing how the People might have doubled in the several Ages of the World.Anno after the Flood.
Periods of doubling  
In 10 Years1—8 Persons.
10—16
20—32
30—64
40—128
50—256
60—512
70—1024
80—2048
90—4096
100—8000 and more
In 20 Years120 Years after the Flood.16 Thousand.
140—32
30—170—64
200—128
40—240—256
50—290—512
60—350—1 Million and more.
70—420—2 Millions.
100—520—4 Millions.
190—710—8 Millions.
290—1000—16 In Moses Time.
400—1400—32 About Davids Time.
550—1950—64
750—2700—128 About the Birth of Christ.
1000—3700—256
In 300/1200—4000—320

[Page 25]It is here to be Noted, That in this Table we have assigned a diffe­rent Number of Years for the time of doubling the People in the seve­ral Ages of the World, and might have done the same for the several Countries of the World, and there­fore the said several Periods assigned to the whole World in the Lump, may well enough consist with the 360 Years especially assigned to England, between this Day, and the Norman Conquest; And the said 360 Years may well enough serve for a Sup­position between this time, and that of the Worlds being fully Peopled; Nor do we lay any stress upon one or the other in this disquisition con­cerning the Growth of the City of London.

We have spoken of the Growth of London, with the Measures and Periods thereof, we come next to the Causes and Consequences of the same.

[Page 26]The Causes of its Growth from 1642 to 1682, may be said to have been as followeth, viz. From 1642 to 1650, That Men came out of the Countrey to London, to shelter them­selves from the Outrages of the Civil Wars, during that time; from 1650 to 1660, The Royal Party came to London, for their more private and inexpensive Living; from 1660 to 1670, The Kings Friends and Party came to receive his Favours after his Happy Restauration; from 1670 to 1680, The frequency of Plots and Parliaments, might bring extraor­dinary Numbers to the City; But what Reasons to assign for the like Increase from 1604 to 1642, I know not, unless I should pick out some Remarkable Accident happening in each part of the said Period, and make that to be the Cause of this Increase (as Vulgar People make the Cause of every Mans Sickness, to be [Page 27] what he did last eat) wherefore, ra­ther than so to say quidlibet de quo­libet; I had rather quit even what I have above-said to be the Cause of London's Increase from 1642 to 1682, and put the whole upon some Na­tural and Spontaneous Benefits and Advantages that Men find by Living in great more than in small Societies; and shall therefore seek for the Ante­cedent Causes of this Growth, in the Consequences of the like, considered in greater Characters and Proporti­ons.

Now, whereas in Arithmetick, out of two false Positions the Truth is extracted, so I hope out of two ex­travagant contrary Suppositions, to draw forth some solid and consistent Conclusion, viz.

The first of the said two Suppo­sitions is, That the City of London is seven times bigger than now, and that the Inhabitants of it are four [Page 28] Millions 690 Thousand People, and that in all the other Cities, Ports, Towns, and Villages, there are but two Millions 710 Thousand more.

The other Supposition is, That the City of London is but a seventh part of its present bigness, and that the Inhabitants of it are but 96 Thou­sand, and that the rest of the Inha­bitants (being 7 Millions 304 Thou­sand) do Co-habit thus, 104 Thou­sand of them in small Cities and Towns, and that the rest, being seven Millions 200 Thousand, do Inhabit in Houses not contiguous to one ano­ther, viz. In 1200 Thousand Houses, having about 24 Acres of Ground belonging to each of them, account­ing about 28 Millions of Acres to be in the whole Territory of England, Wales, and the adjacent Islands; which any Man that pleases may Ex­amine upon a good Map.

[Page 29]Now, the Question is, In which of these two Imaginary states, would be the most convenient, commo­dious and comfortable Livings?

But this general Question divides it self into the several Questions, relating to the following Particulars, viz.

1. For the Defence of the King­dom against Foraign Powers.

2. For preventing the Intestine Commotions of Parties and Factions.

3. For Peace and Vniformity in Re­ligion.

4. For the Administration of Iu­stice.

5. For the proportionably Taxing of the People, and easie Levying the same.

6. For Gain by Foraign Com­merce.

7. For Husbandry, Manufacture, and for Arts of Delight and Orna­ment.

[Page 30]8. For lessening the Fatigue of Car­riages and Travelling.

9. For preventing Beggars and Thieves.

10. For the Advancement and Propagation of Vseful Learning.

11. For Increasing the People by Generation.

12. For preventing the Mischiefs of Plagues and Contagions. And withal, which of the said two states is most Practicable and Natural; for in these and the like particulars, do lye the Tests and Touch-stones of all Proposals, that can be made for the Publick Good.

First, as to Practicable, we say, That although our said Extravagant Proposals are both in Nature possible, yet it is not Obvious to every Man to conceive, how London, now seven times bigger than in the beginning of Queen Elizabeths Reign, should be seven times bigger than now it is, [Page 31] and 49 times bigger than Anno 1560. To which I say, 1. That the present City of London stands upon less than 1500 Acres of Ground, wherefore a City seven times as large may stand upon 10500 Acres, which is about equivalent to a Circle of four Miles and a half in Diameter, and less than 15 Miles in Circumference. 2. That a Circle of Ground of 35 Miles Se­midiameter will bear Corn, Garden­stuff, Fruits, Hay, and Timber for the four Millions 690 Thousand Inha­bitants of the said City and Circle, so as nothing of that kind need be brought from above 35 Miles di­stance from the said City; for the Number of Acres within the said Circle, reckoning one Acre suffici­ent to furnish Bread and Drink-Corn for every Head, and two Acres will furnish Hay for every Necessary Horse; And that the Trees which may grow in the Hedge-rows of the [Page 32] Fields within the said Circle, may furnish Timber for 600 Thousand Houses. 3. That all live Cattel and great Animals can bring themselves to the said City; and that Fish can be brought from the Lands-end and Berwick as easily as now. 4. Of Coals there is no doubt: And for Wa­ter, 20 s. per Family (or 600 Thou­sand pounds per Annum in the whole) will serve this City, especially with the help of the New River. But if by Practicable be understood, that the present state may be suddenly changed into either of the two a­bove-mentioned Proposals, I think it is not Practicable. Wherefore the true Question is, unto or towards which of the said two Extravagant states it is best to bend the present state by degrees, viz. Whether it be best to lessen or enlarge the present City? In Order whereunto, we en­quire (as to the first Question) which [Page 33] state is most Defensible against For­raign Powers, saying, that if the above-mentioned Housing, and a border of Ground, of 3 quarters of a Mile broad, were encompassed with a Wall and Ditch of 20 Miles about (as strong as any in Europe, which would cost but a Million, or about a Penny in the shilling of the House-Rent for one Year) what Foraign Prince could bring an Army from beyond Seas, able to beat, 1. Our Sea-Forces, and next with Horse harrass'd at Sea, to resist all the fresh Horse that England could make, and then Conquer above a Million of Men, well United, Disciplin'd, and Guarded within such a Wall, distant every where 3 quarters of a Mile from the Housing, to elude the Granadoes and great Shot of the Enemy? 2. As to Intestine Parties and Factions, I suppose that 4 Millions 690 Thou­sand People United within this great [Page 34] City, could easily Govern half the said Number scattered without it, and that a few Men in Arms within the said City, and Wall, could also easily Govern the rest unarmed, or Armed in such manner as the Sove­raign shall think fit. 3. As to Vnifor­mity in Religion, I conceive, That if St. Martins Parish may (as it doth) consist of about 40 Thousand Souls, That this great City also may as well be made but as one Parish, with 7 times 130 Chappels, in which might not only be an Uniformity of Common Prayer, but in Preaching also; for that a thousand Copies of one Judici­ously and Authentically Composed Sermon, might be every Week read in each of the said Chappels without any subsequent Repetition of the same, as in the Case of Homilies. Whereas in England (wherein are near 10 Thousand Parishes, in each of which upon Sundays, Holy-days, [Page 35] and other Extraordinary Occasions, there should be about 100 Sermons per Annum, making about a Milli­on of Sermon per Annum in the whole:) It were a Miracle, if a Mil­lion of Sermons Composed by so many Men, and of so many Minds and Methods, should produce Vni­formity upon the discomposed under­standings of about 8 Millions of Hearers.

4. As to the Administration of Iu­stice. If in this great City shall dwell the Owners of all the Lands, and other Valuable things in England; If within it shall be all the Traders, & all the Courts, Offices, Records, Iuries, and Witnesses; Then it follows, that Iustice may be made with speed and ease.

5. As to the Equality and easie Levying of Taxes, It is too certain, That London hath at some times paid near half the Excise of England; and that the People pay [Page 36] thrice as much for the Hearths in London as those in the Countrey, in proportion to the People of each, and that the Charge of Collecting these Duties, have been about a sixth part of the Duty it self. Now, in this great City, the Excise alone ac­cording to the present Laws, would not only be double to the whole Kingdom, but also more equal. And the Duty of Hearths of the said City, would exceed the present pro­ceed of the whole Kingdom. And as for the Customs, we mention them not at present.

6. Whether more would be gain'd by Foraign Commerce.

The Gain which England makes by Lead, Coals, the Freight of Ship­ping, &c. may be the same, for ought I see, in both Cases. But the Gain which is made by Manufactures, will be greater, as the Manufacture it self is greater and better. For in so vast [Page 37] a City Manufactures will beget one another, and each Manufacture will be divided into as many parts as pos­sible, whereby the Work of each Artisan will be simple and easie; As for Example. In the making of a Watch, If one Man shall make the Wheels, another the Spring, another shall Engrave the Dial-plate, and ano­ther shall make the Cases, then the Watch will be better and cheaper, than if the whole Work be put upon any one Man. And we also see that in Towns, and in the Streets of a great Town, where all the Inhabitants are almost of one Trade, the Com­modity peculiar to those places is made better and cheaper than else­where. Moreover, when all sorts of Manufactures are made in one place, there every Ship that goeth forth, can suddenly have its Loading of so many several Particulars and Species, as the Port whereunto she is bound [Page 38] can take off. Again, when the se­veral Manufactures are made in one place, and Shipped off in another, the Carriage, Postage, and Travelling-charges will Inhance the Price of such Manufacture, and lessen the Gain upon Foraign Commerce. And lastly, when the Imported Goods are spent in the Port it self, where they are Landed, the Carriage of the same into other places, will create no sur­charge upon such Commodity; all which particulars tends to the greater Gain by Foraign Commerce.

7. As for Arts of Delight and Or­nament,

They are best promoted by the greatest Number of Emulators. And it is more likely that one Ingenious Curious Man may rather be found out amongst 4 Millions than 400 Persons. But as for Husbandry, viz. Tillage and Pasturage, I see no Rea­son, but the second state (when [Page 39] each Family is charged with the Cul­ture of about 24 Acres) will best promote the same.

8. As for lessening the Fatigue of Carriage and Travelling,

The things speaks it self, for if all the Men of Business, and all Artisans do Live within five Miles of each other; And if those who Live with­out the great City, do spend only such Commodities as grow where they Live, when the charge of Car­riage and Travelling could be little.

9. As to the preventing of Beggars and Thieves,

I do not find how the differences of the said two states should make much difference in this particular; for Impotents (which are but one in about 600) ought to be main­tained by the rest. 2. Those who are unable to Work, through the evil Education of their Parents, ought (for ought I know) to be main­tained [Page 40] by their nearest Kindred, as a just Punishment upon them. 3. And those who cannot find Work (though able and willing to perform it) by reason of the unequal application of Hands to Lands, ought to be provided for by the Magistrate and Land-Lord till that can be done; for there needs be no Beggars in Countries, where there are many Acres of unimproved improvable Land to every Head, as there are in England. As for Thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the same Cause; For it is against Nature, that any Man should venture his Life, Limb, or Liberty, for a wretched Livelyhood, whereas moderate La­bour will produce a better. But of this see Sir Thomas Moor, in the first part of his Vtopia.

10. As to the Propagation and Im­provement of Vseful Learning,

[Page 41]The same may be said concern­ing it as was above-said concerning Manufactures, and the Arts of De­light and Ornaments; for in the great vast City, there can be no so odd a Conceit or Design, whereunto some Assistance may not be found, which in the thin, scattered way of Habi­tation may not be.

11. As for the Increase of People by Generation,

I see no great difference from either of the two states, for the same may be hindred or promoted in either, from the same Causes.

12. As to the Plague,

It is to be remembred, that one time with another, a Plague hap­peneth in London once in 20 Years, or thereabouts; for in the last hundred Years, between the Years 1582 and 1682, there have been five great Plagues, viz. Anno 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it is also to [Page 40] [...] [Page 41] [...] [Page 42] be remembred, that the Plagues of London do commonly kill one fifth part of the Inhabitants. Now, if the whole People of England do double but in 360 Years, then the Annual Increase of the same is but 20000, and in 20 Years 400000. But if in the City of London there should be two Millions of People, (as there will be about 60 Years hence) then the Plague (killing one fifth of them, namely, 400000, once in 20 Years) will destroy as many in one Year, as the whole Na­tion can re-furnish in 20: And con­sequently the People of the Nation shall never Increase. But if the Peo­ple of London shall be above 4 Mil­lions (as in the first of our two Ex­travagant Suppositions is premised) then the People of the whole Nation shall lessen above 20000 per Annum. So as if People be worth 70 l. per Head (as hath elsewhere been shewn) [Page 43] then the said greatness of the City will be a damage to it self and the whole Nation of 14 hundred Thou­sand pounds per Annum, and so prorata, for a greater or lesser Number; wherefore to determine, which of the two states is best, (that is to say, towards which of the said two states Authority should bend the present state) a just Balance ought to be made between the disadvantages from the Plague, with the Advanta­ges accruing from the other Particu­lars above-mentioned; unto which Balance a more exact Account of the People, and a better Rule for the Measure of its Growth is Necessary, than what we have here given, or are yet able to lay down.

Post-script.

IT was not very pertinent to a Dis­course concerning the Growth of the City of London, to thrust in Con­siderations of the Time when the whole World will be fully Peopled; and how to justifie the Scriptures concerning the Number of People mentioned in them; and concern­ing the Number of the Quick and the Dead, that may Rise at the last Day, &c. Nevertheless, since some Friends liking the said Digressions and Impertinencies (perhaps as sauce to a dry Discourse) have desired that the same might be explain'd and made out. I therefore say as fol­loweth.

1. If the Number of Acres in the Habitable part of the Earth, be under [Page 45] 50. Thousand Millions; if Twenty Thousand Millions of People, are more than the said Number of Acres will feed; (few or no Countries being so fully Peopled;) and for that in six doublings (which will be in 2000 Years) the present 320 Mil­lions will exceed the said 20 Thou­sand Millions.

2. That the Number of all those who have dyed since the Flood, is the sum of all the Products made by Mul­tiplying the Number of the doubling Periods mentioned in the first Co­lumn of the last Table, by the Num­ber of People respectively affixed to them, in the third Column of the same Table; the said sum being Di­vided by 40 (one dying out of 40 per Annum, out of the whole Mass of Mankind) which Quotient is 12570 Millions; Whereunto may be added, for those that dyed before the Flood, enough to make the last [Page 46] mentioned Number 20 Thousand Millions, as the full Number of all that dyed, from the beginning of the World, to the Year 1682; unto which, if 320 Millions, the Num­ber of those who are now alive, be added, the Total of the Quick and the Dead, will amount but unto one fifth part of the Graves, which the surface of Ireland will afford, with­out ever putting two Bodies into any one Grave; for there be in Ire­land 28 Thousand square English Miles, each whereof will afford about 4 Millions of Graves, and conse­quently above 114 Thousand Mil­lions of Graves, viz. about 5 times the Number of the Quick and the Dead, which should arise at the last Day, in case the same had been in the Year 1682.

3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many Graves in Ire­land, as are sufficient for all that ever [Page 47] dyed; And if the Earth of one Grave weigh five times as much as the Body Interr'd therein, then a Turf, less than a Foot thick, pared off from a fifth part of the surface of Ireland, will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all the Bodies that ever were Buried; And may serve as well for that purpose, as the two Mountains afore-mentioned in the body of this Discourse. From all which it is plain, how madly they were mistaken, who did so petulant­ly vilisie what the Holy Scriptures have delivered.

FINIS.

Observations upon the Dublin Bills of Mortality, M.DC.LXXXI. And the state of that City. By the Observator in the London Bills of Mortality. In Octavo.

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